Awami leaders dream of political comeback

Over the past two weeks, I had the opportunity to speak in detail with three mid-ranking Awami League leaders from two different districts, as well as a former minister whose current situation remains unknown to me.

I met the three leaders in person at a cafe in Dhaka, following considerable persuasion and assurances of their safety to agree to the meeting. They were willing to talk because I was consulting for a global human rights organisation, which was eager to learn about the abuses faced by many Awami League leaders and activists after August 5th.

The former minister contacted me via WhatsApp, and we engaged in an extensive discussion on various topics, including the potential for a swift political comeback for the Awami League.

From these conversations, which spanned multiple topics, four key points emerged. First, the mid-level Awami League leaders expressed little remorse for the 22-day violent uprising that resulted in over 700 deaths.

Second, they firmly believed that the Aynaghar secret prison — used to detain victims of enforced disappearances during Sheikh Hasina’s rule — is merely a fabrication. One leader jokingly remarked that the gamcha presented by Brig. Gen. Abdullahi Aman Azmi, claiming to have used it for eight years in Ayanghar, looked brand new. “That is so phony. It is ridiculous,” he said while sipping his latte.

Third, contrary to the common belief that Sheikh Hasina's departure to India has eroded her political capital and jeopardised her standing within the party by angering party members, she remained the undisputed leader of the Awami League. “We are very glad that Apa [Hasina] is safe. Without her, there is no Awami League. She embodies the party,” one leader remarked.

Fourth, all three leaders were convinced that the Awami League will make a political comeback within a year. “It might even be sooner. Do you really think India would allow any government other than the Awami League to stay in power for long?” one leader said with a smirk.

The former minister, who is more cautious, shared this perspective but expressed it more diplomatically. He called for an impartial investigation into the murders during that 22-day period, suggesting that it could reveal a “different truth.” 

Regarding Aynaghar, he posed a question rather than offering an answer: “Why didn’t the Yunus government make all Aynaghars accessible to the public?” When discussing Hasina’s departure, he stated, “Hasina never intended to flee; it was a strategic decision.” Lastly, on the topic of the Awami League’s resurgence, he said, “It is only a matter of time.”

The optimism among Awami League leaders regarding a political comeback is somewhat surprising, especially considering that right after August 5th, I received at least two calls from party leaders and activists who were not only terrified for their lives but also angrily cursing Hasina for abandoning them.

However, as the intense violence began to subside, and with reports of their properties being looted by political opponents, they started to shake off their fears and began to believe they had nothing to lose any more and could weather any further storm.

Additionally, two leaked conversations involving Hasina, which analysts view as staged, seem intended to convey her message, as her direct address to the Bangladeshi people could put Delhi in a difficult position amid the Yunus administration’s ongoing calls for Hasina’s return under the extradition treaty between the two countries.

To an impartial observer, the leaked conversations involving Hasina — where she claims she never truly resigned and accuses Yunus’s administration of looting banks and reversing her developmental achievements — may seem absurd and ridiculous. However, for Awami League leaders, these statements are music to their ears, and they wholeheartedly believe them, as I discovered through my discussions with them.

Nevertheless, these Awami League leaders and activists are living in a fantasy of their own creation. Since August 5th, I have been interviewing the families of victims and ordinary people from various segments of society, and I can assert, based on that sample group of interviewees, that the anger towards the Awami League’s actions is very real and palpable.

One young boy I spoke with in the ward of the National Institute of Traumatology and Orthopaedic Rehabilitation, who was in his late teens, had a fierce look in his eyes as he expressed his feelings about Hasina and her party. His leg was propped up with intimidating metal supports, and the doctors had informed him that his wounds would take at least six months to heal. Yet, he declared that he would take to the streets on crutches if Hasina ever returned.

Discussions among intellectuals and civil society have emerged following August 5th about the possibility of banning the Awami League as a political party. While a writ was filed by an aggrieved individual in court, it was dismissed. 

However, the interim government has recently drafted an amendment to the International Crimes (Tribunals) Act of 1973, which includes a provision to ban a political party for up to 10 years for crimes against humanity and genocide.

The draft, prepared by the law ministry, is part of the government's efforts to hold those responsible for suppressing the July uprising accountable. On Monday, the law ministry hosted a discussion where lawyers, human rights activists, and leaders from various organisations advocated for a permanent ban on parties that have engaged in violence during the student-led protests. They stressed the importance of prosecuting leaders and activists involved in killings and crimes against humanity at all levels.

Key proposals in the amendments include a 10-year ban on parties and organisations linked to mass killings or crimes against humanity, and accountability for those parties that fail to address such crimes.

It is clear that if these amendments are passed, there is a significant likelihood that legal action will be taken to seek a ban on the Awami League. Hasina is already facing over 130 legal cases, and many of her top leaders are either in hiding or imprisoned.

Given this context, a political comeback for the Awami League seems unlikely in the near future. However, as many of its activists and leaders begin to feel they have nothing to lose, the potential for chaos and violence they may unleash is a cause for concern.●

Faisal Mahmud is a journalist based in Dhaka.