Do you want to stand up to Delhi?

Amid the winter chill, the temperature on the streets and on alternative media is rising.  The issues of flags, minorities, arrests and an orchestrated assault on a consulate in Tripura, swirl around accusation and counter-accusation. Mamata Banerjee, once a railway minister for the BJP, calls for UN intervention. Bangladeshis try to rally around  “national unity”. When will there be a shift from tactical reaction to strategic motion?

The trouble with India

We should respect and learn from the achievements of Deccan, Southern India. However, overall, the giant Indian elephant is weak. Its internal organs are in a state of decay.

It has lost the race with China. The Chinese economy is five times larger, on nominal GDP terms. Remember when Indians were supposed to become a tech superpower, while the Chinese could only “steal, copy and be unable to innovate”. China has left India in the dust. It is a world leader in renewable energy, in New Electric Vehicles, in 5G and 5.5G, in High Speed Rail. In Info-tech, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, it is several levels above India. Eight hundred million people in India depend on free food handouts.

India’s Neighbourhood First policy is a desire for suzerainty in “its backyard”. Its neighbours are noticing. Nepali PM K.P. Oli  made the first trip (after coming to power this time), not to Delhi as tradition dictates, but to Beijing. In 2015, Modi blockaded Hindu Nepal for six months, causing an economic and humanitarian crisis. Note the excuse then was about a new constitution in Kathmandu.

Avinash Paliwal, in his must-read India’s Near East: A New History sheds light on the background of Indian interference in Bangladesh. Those we know about and those that were almost executed but aborted. 

India's Northeast is a milder model of Myanmar. For over a year, Manipur burns amid inter-ethnic killings. Modi doesn’t care to visit. He seems more concerned about Bangladeshi minorities, not his own. Over 200 million Muslims have suffered a decade of Hindutva misrule and abuse but Indian media commentators, with a straight face, admonish Bangladesh. Kashmir anyone?   

Today, Kolkata is reeling economically with fewer visiting Bangladeshis, no longer paying for holidays and health care. Delhi petulantly puts the brake on issuing visas after August 5. It ends up punishing itself.

Action Reaction

The incessant pressure by Delhi, aided by an ex-prime minister being harboured there fanning the flames, increases the chances of an outright ban on the Awami League. Or perhaps a moratorium for 5 years, while cases are resolved. The rationale would be its anti-state activities on behalf of India, ironically a mirror image of the recently banned (now unbanned) Jamaat, in league with Pakistan.

An op-ed in the Indian daily, The Print, speculates that with the Awami League removed, it would allow  a new student political party to perform much better than expected. Most domestic commentators discount this. They stick to the sure trade that the BNP will wipe out all others, gaining a (dangerous) super-majority. Just like the Awami League in 2008. Looks like a contrarian bet to savour.

A counter-strategy towards Delhi?

Perhaps set in motion steps that will bear fruit in the medium term:

1) Sincerely invite the Chinese to return with their billion-dollar offer to safeguard the reduced water from the Teesta River. It would bring life to North Bengal and its farmers.  It would also be a blow to India’s reputation as it would be a permanent monument to its ecological bullying of a smaller, lower riparian neighbour.

2) Ignore the Interim government’s weird push to resurrect SAARC. Personally, I would leave it. It was created by Dhaka in the 1970s. It can be buried by Dhaka in the 2020s.

3) Instead, make it a national mission to head east. Don’t merely send a memo to join ASEAN and RCEP (ASEAN +China +Japan +Korea). Actively pursue this diplomatically. Encourage and support Bangladeshi business and banks to prepare. Educate the public about the job opportunities. Meanwhile, rev up the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) but without the Mujib-coat corruption over questionable mega projects. Go Mega-Industry instead. Revamp the Chinese industrial export zone in Chottogram. The background is that India pulled out of joining BRI and RCEP and put heavy pressure on Dhaka’s acquiescent Awami League to go slow with the Chinese. From now, Bangladesh has to increase its Comprehensive National Power.   

4) Call Delhi’s bluff. Reiterate that Bangladesh, in principle, welcomes greater integration with the Seven Sisters. But on equal terms, for mutual benefit, where the interests of Bangladesh are considered for the first time. One where Delhi forgets about where and how to invest in roads and rail on Bangladeshi territory. China can replace it with modern infrastructure of higher quality at higher speed. India should modernise the infrastructure of the permanently neglected Seven Sisters. Rather than closing shop, New Bangladesh can open doors to its Near Abroad. This will not chime in the current hothouse atmosphere but the medium term beckons.

Any fruitful relationship requires an end to Indian killings on the border fences and the vitriol directed at Bangladesh. Dhaka has to continue its commitment to permanently safeguard the personal security of Hindus and other minorities in Bangladesh.

But how does one boost negotiating power against the neighbourhood superpower, intent on enforcing the Monroe Doctrine on the subcontinent?

Countervailing Power

One needs back-up for pushback. Let’s first dispose of the false move of going back in time. Pakistan, certainly one with Imran Khan behind bars, has little positive to offer Bangladesh strategically. It is militarily weak. Trade would be beneficial and we should welcome the re-opening of seaborne commerce. But, do not fall into the trap of allying with Islamabad to get at Delhi. 

Once you let the ISI wolf come inside, you lose control of events. Eventually, bases will return to arm guerrillas in the Seven Sisters, as they were during the last BNP-Jamaat government. A scenario to avoid.

For true countervailing power for the 2020s and 2030s, follow the Teesta north to Sikkim and onto China. The Dragon can provide that and more, including equipping a military seemingly geared up for UN tours rather than defence against external threats.

Sadly,  the temporary top office-holders in Dhaka have placed their bet on a distant superpower. Have they forgotten Henry Kissinger’s  warning: “To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal”?

New Bangladesh needs New Thinking from New People to discover the path to prosperity in Asia.  But the new people are not on a high speed train in China. Jamaat are, at the invitation of the Communist Party of China. 

Chinese diplomats may be unsure about the amorphous form of New Politics, not finding recognisable patterns or structures to hold on to. They understand the traditional terrain of Old Politics. They, like the rest of us, might be listening to sources informing them that the Young have no chance of any future stake on power. 

The same sources who didn’t see the Revolution coming? Students should introduce themselves. Discussions increase trust, enhance knowledge, clear up misconceptions. Then things might start to get interesting.●

Farid Erkizia Bakht is a writer and analyst.