What’s still standing in the way of Tarique’s homecoming?

Hundreds of videos and posts — mostly from Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) loyalists — have flooded social media, proclaiming “the leader is coming” following a High Court verdict that overturned the 2018 conviction of Tarique Rahman, the de facto leader of the BNP.

Rahman, who had been sentenced to life imprisonment for masterminding the deadly August 21th 2004 grenade attack on former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, is now poised for a potential return to Bangladesh after more than 16 years of political exile in London.

The High Court acquitted Rahman — and 48 others — on December 2nd, on the grounds of a "mistrial" in one of the major cases in which he was convicted. However, despite the ruling, questions remain about when and how he will return to the country.

The anticipated homecoming

Since the ruling, the country has been rife with speculation. A senior BNP leader, who wished to remain anonymous, stated that Rahman will be home in the first week of January, while some even point out January 10th 2025 — heavy with the symbolism of being the very day Sheikh Mujibur Rahman set foot in Bangladesh after 290 days of captivity in Pakistan through 1971, during the Liberation War.

There is a near-unanimous consensus amongst BNP leaders and activists regarding Rahman’s homecoming has being a clear pronouncement of hope for a new political chapter. “As a student leader who suffered under Hasina's misrule, I believe that, unlike the politics of hatred and revenge, Tarique Rahman will lead the nation towards becoming an inclusive, fair, and peaceful state, bringing together people from all walks of life,” said Md. Abidul Islam Khan, Joint General Secretary of the University of Dhaka’s Chhatra Dal (JCD) chapter. “The people of the nation are eagerly awaiting his return to restore democracy and build a new Bangladesh.”

Some even believed that Rahman might return immediately after the fall of the Awami League government and Sheikh Hasina’s escape to India on August 5th. However, nearly four months later, the much-anticipated homecoming remains pending.

BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir left for London on November 30th. According to sources, the objective of the trip was handling the logistics of the return. Rahman has been in London since 2008, but despite the current political optimism, his return is far from straightforward.

Not plain sailing

Speaking to Netra News, AKM Wahiduzzaman, the BNP’s Information and Technology Affairs Secretary, explained the challenges surrounding Rahman’s return.

“The concern for the safety of Tarique’s life on Bangladeshi soil was always there, particularly under the Hasina government,” he said. Referring to the assassination of Benigno S. Aquino Jr. of the Filipino political dynasty in Manilla on August 21st 1983, upon his return from exile, Wahiduzzaman added, “That threat still exists, albeit to a lesser degree. Something similar to the incident with Benigno S. Aquino Jr. could happen. Given the current state of law and order in the country, we cannot rule out risks to his safety.”

The logistics of his return have also been under careful consideration. According to Wahiduzzaman, early discussions suggested Rahman could return immediately after the fall of the Awami League government.

“We proposed that he leave as soon as possible, even on August 5th, knowing that Dr. Yunus would take longer to depart from Paris. However, Rahman was not ready for that. When we suggested he attend the swearing-in ceremony, he firmly rejected the idea,” he said.

Rahman explained to his close associates that the timing was not right. 

“He felt the enthusiasm and excitement in the country, especially among the youth who had helped overthrow the dictatorship, would turn the spotlight onto him. That could have led to disappointment among the younger generation, and they might have interpreted his return negatively,” Wahiduzzaman said.

Additionally, Rahman expressed concerns about his mother, BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia, and the need to address her medical treatment before considering his return.

“As for Khaleda Zia — it wouldn’t be practical for him to return to Bangladesh while his mother is receiving treatment in London. Moreover, it wouldn’t make sense for him to return and then immediately take his mother abroad again,” Wahiduzzaman added.

As part of the considerations, he also recalled the overwhelming public response when Rahman was released on bail in 2008. 

“When news of his release spread, Dhaka came to a complete standstill for hours. From Farmgate to Dhaka University, and from Motsho Bhaban to Science Lab, at least half a million people gathered to see Tarique Rahman in front of PG Hospital [Now BSMMU]. His popularity even back then was unmatched,” Wahiduzzaman said.

“If he returns now, the streets will see the same kind of frenzy. But the younger student leaders now have very little tolerance. Even many BNP leaders were unable to stand the popularity of Tarique back then. With the current interim government in power, him returning home now could lead to a delicate situation — even further destabilisation of the country. You cannot control the grassroot-level activists and common people from taking to the streets for their leader,” he added.

Given the political climate, Rahman’s return seems contingent on the timing of the next general election. 

Wahiduzzaman explained, “That’s why Tarique Rahman is likely to return once the election schedule is announced, or at least when there’s a clear roadmap for elections.”

Alternatively, he noted that Rahman might return once Khaleda Zia’s treatment is completed, especially if the two-time former premier thinks she will return with her son.

The legal situation

Following the High Court ruling on November 30th, Rahman took to social media to share his thoughts. “Let us unite to end political vengeance and open a new chapter in history, where no one’s life or family will be destroyed because of political differences,” he wrote.

Since 2007, Rahman has faced at least 84 cases against him. Of these, he was convicted in five cases, while 39 were dismissed, or resulted in acquittal or being discharged.

Most recently, Rahman was acquitted in the August 21st 2004 grenade attack case on November 30th. He had previously been convicted by the Speedy Trial Tribunal-1 in Dhaka on October 10th 2018.

BNP’s Legal Secretary and Rahman’s key lawyer, Kaiser Kamal, said, “Tarique Rahman was convicted in four other fabricated and false cases. Just as he received justice today, we hope he will receive justice in the other four cases as well.”

Kamal also emphasised that these cases will not affect Rahman’s return, which will remain his personal decision. “These cases will be dealt with in the court of law,” he stated. “Tarique Rahman has always shown the utmost respect for the law, the courts, and the constitution.”

When asked if Rahman would surrender to court upon his return, Kamal responded, “That’s a hypothetical question. Rahman will go through the legal process, and we cannot predict in advance what that will look like.”

Wahiduzzaman mentioned that if Rahman had returned to Dhaka immediately after August 5th, he would have followed the legal process and sought bail from the court, respecting the law; he would then fight the cases in a legal manner, with leave to appeal.

Mahdi Amin, adviser to Tarique Rahman, believes that Rahman’s homecoming depends on a broader political context and judicial reforms. "His return is contingent on the interim government’s swiftness in ensuring justice for the numerous mistrials during Hasina’s dictatorship," Amin explained.

Amin said that Rahman is concerned not only about his own cases but also about the numerous false cases filed against BNP leaders, activists, and others over the past 15 and a half years. “He seeks all such cases to be withdrawn in accordance with the law,” Amin added.

The BNP claims that cases were filed against nearly six million of its leaders and activists during the Awami League administration, though Netra News could not independently verify the figure. “It may happen that Tarique Rahman’s cases are withdrawn, but others may remain. Tarique will consider returning home only when all politically motivated charges are dropped and genuine human rights and the rule of law are restored,” Amin said.

Bangladesh’s Attorney General, Md. Asaduzzaman, spoke to Prothom Alo daily, suggesting that an appeal might be filed against the High Court ruling that acquitted Rahman and others in the August 21st grenade attack case. “We will review the reasoning behind the verdict and the top court’s instructions before making a decision on the appeal,” he said.

Rahman and his party have repeatedly been calling for a general election as soon as possible. In a previous post on X, Rahman argued that the “rebuilding” of Bangladesh could only happen under a democratically elected government.

While Muhammad Yunus announced a timeline for a general election in his address to the nation on December 16th, the interim government has yet to announce any election plans, focusing instead on constitutional reforms. Meanwhile, the economy has failed to see significant improvements, and the law and order situation remains fragile.

Despite some progress in Bangladesh’s relationship with India, concerns persist over the security of the Hindu minority community amid a disinformation campaign by the Indian media and an attack on the Assistant High Commission of Bangladesh in Tripura. Hindus are living in fear in Bangladesh, with some political analysts warning of further volatility.●