BNP holds solid lead, but Awami League narrows gap, poll finds

The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has held on to its strong lead over the past six months, but its arch-rival, the Awami League, has made the biggest gains, according to a major nationwide survey released on Wednesday.

The nationwide poll, conducted by Innovision Consulting between September 2nd and 15th with more than 10,000 respondents, shows the Awami League improving its standing among voters by nearly five percentage points since March. The party, ousted in a popular uprising last year, now commands about 19 percent support, up from a low of 14 percent.

Despite the gains, the Awami League continues to trail both the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami by a wide margin. The BNP remains the frontrunner with 41.3 percent support, a slight dip from 41.7 percent in March. Jamaat holds 30.3 percent, down more than a percentage point over the same period.

A newer entrant, the National Citizen Party (NCP), led by figures from the student movement that helped topple the Awami League, registered only 4 percent, down from 5 percent six months earlier.

The survey also indicates many voters remain hesitant to disclose their preferences. Of more than 10,000 respondents, 45 percent named a party – up from 40.7 percent in March – even though 94 percent (or slightly fewer if the Awami League was barred) said they planned to vote.

Few plan to boycott poll

The Awami League’s gains are most pronounced in Barisal division, where it leads with 32 percent support, ahead of both the BNP and Jamaat. This marks a modest resurgence for a party still reeling from last year’s upheaval, with its overall popularity remaining historically low. The BNP and Jamaat together continue to command more than 70 percent of voter support nationwide.

The chance of a credible election for the first time in over 15 years appears to matter more to voters than worries over Awami League’s exclusion.

94 percent of respondents said they planned to vote, while only 4 percent said they would not. If the Awami League were excluded, only a further 4 percent said they would abstain. Altogether, less than half of Awami League supporters indicated they would withhold their ballots in that scenario. Most said they would shift to the BNP or Jamaat, lifting the two parties’ support to 46 and 34 percent respectively.

“Most people will think, ‘how is it possible that there is a resurgence in Awami League while there is also generally a positive outlook towards the election?’” said Rubaiyath Sarwar, the managing director of Innovision Consulting, in a text message. “For me, it shows that people want to move forward inclusively and with peace.”

Regionally, the BNP maintains a lead across all but two divisions – Barisal and Rangpur. In those areas, Jamaat is expected to have the upper hand if the Awami League does not contest. The once-dominant Jatiyo Party appears to have lost ground in its former stronghold of Rangpur. In Rajshahi, Jamaat trails BNP with a close margin.

Jamaat’s current support represents a historic high for the party, which won just 12.3 percent of the national vote in its best showing in 1991. Analysts note that Bangladesh’s first-past-the-post system may still undercut Jamaat’s gains, even with nearly one in three voters backing the party. In past elections, even a margin of less than one percentage point in the popular vote has translated into wide disparities in parliamentary seats. 

The imbalance has likely fuelled Jamaat’s recent push for a proportional representation system, which would secure it a sizeable bloc of MPs even if it is positioned as the opposition, said Asif Bin Ali, a doctoral fellow at Georgia State University. “It also raises questions about Jamaat’s motives – whether the goal is to improve democratic representation or simply to gain more power for the party,” he added.

BNP seen as best to govern, though unpopular

More than one in four respondents said they were “not at all” satisfied with the BNP’s performance, while only one in five reported being fully or very satisfied, leaving the party with a net negative satisfaction score of 6.7 percent.

The Awami League fared worse, with a third of respondents “not at all” satisfied, giving it a net rating of minus 18 percent.

Jamaat drew a more favourable view: just over 30 percent said they were satisfied and about 20 percent dissatisfied, making it the only major party with a net positive rating, at 10 percent.

But the results also suggest voters are ready to back the BNP at the ballot box despite their misgivings. Alongside its lead among those who disclosed a preference, a sizeable plurality – 39 percent of all respondents, including those who withheld their choice – said the BNP was best placed to lead the country, putting it 11 points ahead of its nearest rival, Jamaat. “This is probably the closest distribution of votes among the parties,” said Sarwar, adding that the proxy question was designed to capture sentiment among voters who declined to reveal their preference.

Jamaat and the BNP are running almost neck and neck among Generation Z voters – those who were born after 1996, who never had the chance to vote in a fair election. Each commands just over a third of support in that cohort. 

Jamaat is seeking to harness the youth vote, especially after its student-wing scored near-landslide victories in two influential Dhaka student council elections, long considered out of its reach.

By contrast, the BNP has drawn more support from millennials, Generation X, and baby boomers, born between 1946 and 1997.

In recent months, BNP members have been dogged by allegations of extortion, a perception reflected in the survey findings. However, the poll indicates that these views are largely shaped by hearsay: relatively few respondents reported direct experience, underscoring the sway of social media, where such claims have proliferated.

More than half of respondents said extortion had risen over the past six months. But only 11.7 percent cited personal experience, while 45 percent said their views were shaped by what they saw on social media.●