Will Dhaka’s sultans of spin box in the BNP?

Dhaka’s sultans of spin are media alchemists. They turn surrender into conquest (Trump tariffs and secret agreements). They repackage their IMF-led mismanagement of a stagflationary economy into a tale of smart stewardship. Over the last twelve months, the sultans “extracted promises of foreign investment”, “joined the Chinese economy”, became the “gateway for the Seven Sister states”,  declared they would “join ASEAN”, and insisted they would give the kiss of life to “revive SAARC” in South Asia.  Getting high on their own stash, they believe their own beautifully crafted narrative. The space for reflection, learning and informed strategic thinking shrinks. 

Unfortunately, the lost opportunity was for a strategic discourse to determine the path to modernisation in the direction of Eastern Asia. Instead, everyone focused entirely on domestic reform. This has proved to be little more than a digitised version of old-style Western good governance in 2007.   

A financial coup in plain sight?

If the BNP high command has not figured out what the problem is, then that might be a consequence of having advisers tuned into only one (neoliberal) frequency. Its main problem could be Bangladesh Bank. An outlier might or might not be the National Security Adviser (NSA). This interim government is cavalier with issues of sovereignty. We have seen that with the botched handover of the Chittagong Port terminal. We were flabbergasted when the Yunus government, almost as an afterthought, announced a secret agreement with Trump’s buddies.

The key figures in the interim government are supporting the IMF initiative to keep their man as  Central Bank governor. But it is much more than that. This is not personal. It is about moulding an institution according to external IMF design. They are pushing legislation which, if passed, will mean it will be difficult to remove him from office. In all this, there will be a Supreme Court presence. So, when the BNP comes in – as is expected following a free and fair election – and looks to propel economic growth, it will find its hands tied institutionally. High interest rates and a neoliberal, conservative approach will continue to dissuade industrialists and business from investing, just as we have seen for a year. Jobs will not be created. 

People will blame the BNP. Discontent will rise even further. The opposition will circle. Even the World Bank has been damning on the rise in harsh poverty over the past year. Real wages are falling. Recent reports in the media have started using words such as “hunger” and “starvation”. The queues behind food trucks are as long as ever. The poor are desperate. Even the middle class is forced to cut back on consumption. Why are students and political parties not protesting outside Bangladesh Bank? Next year, the BNP will be their target.      

Referring to a draft Bangladesh Bank Ordinance, the governor gushed: “It has been finalised in line with recommendations by the IMF.” Well, of course. He added, “The government and bureaucracy may resist.” As they should. Partly because no government officials would be allowed on the new board of directors. The president would appoint the governor, who would enjoy the status of an independent minister. “If the prime minister and parliament ask, the president may dismiss him.” So that could mean they may not. It lengthens tenure and establishes delaying obstacles. 

The board members will remain for six years and operate on their own steam, ideology and interests, under the permanent thumb of the IMF. Translation: with a loan worth no more than two months’ of remittances, the IMF plugs straight into the nation’s monetary governance via their place-men. Reform? More like takeover. 

With all eyes fixed firmly on the de-industrialising West, look forward to permanent austerity-lite. Sales of national assets to foreign interests. Little active support to new industry. The usual standard operating procedure.  

So, does China allow these kinds of shenanigans? Did China become so phenomenally successful in manufacturing, technology and poverty alleviation by handing over immense power to independent central banks, remote controlled by foreign institutions and countries? No one would even think to ask this in Dhaka. That is the problem. Moreover, there are various types of relationships, with different degrees of autonomy and independence. These have not been explored.              

The very same (neoliberal) economists who have been vehemently criticising the Bangladesh governor for his regressive policies are not objecting to the removal of the Central Bank from democratic control. While independence from domestic hands may have traction in rich countries, the structural problems of a least developed country require co-ordinated management by a hands-on state. That is the East Asia way when one is at an early industrialisation stage. 

Neoliberal-oriented elites are content with unelected, foreign management of the economy. To be clear, economic discipline is essential. By all means, take advice, engage in dialogue, negotiate openly. But why relinquish democratic oversight and the democratic ability to swiftly remove unelected officials?   

The BNP will find that the Bank will work against its objectives. Result: a very short honeymoon. Even if you disagree with my conclusions, surely this IMF-imposed Ordinance for Bangladesh Bank should be enacted following an election? There should be a broader, less hurried discussion. Why rush it through now? Because. 

Dhaka being Rumour-ville, there are unsubstantiated rumours regarding the NSA. Possibly because of the curious, sudden appearance on the scene and subsequent performance. He conjures up flammable corridors in Rakhine and Myanmar without consulting the army chief , the Chinese Ambassador or the Arakan army chief, let alone the official government of Myanmar. He appears on foreign trips in London, to read out a political declaration, and virtually with the Trump Team over tariffs. Neither issue is directly linked to the security brief.  

Everywhere and anywhere, he is immensely influential. It seems he will lead several lavish international conferences on the Rohingya between now and December. Will binding commitments be made? Will the post of NSA be eliminated or be made a permanent fixture? Regardless, will the post be clearly defined, with transparency of and accountability for the office-holder’s activities? Answers on a postcard from the sultans in Jamuna, please. 

I mention the BNP because it is the frontrunner by a country mile to become the next government. Oh wait. Some student leaders are publicly threatening to oppose any election in February if their demands are not fully met. No vision, no sign of thinking, no roadmap – only demands. Then there is the wild card that is Jamaat. As always. To neutralise last minute machinations by the interim government sultans, some see the military, bureaucracy and the BNP finding increasingly more common interests ahead.●

Farid Erkizia Bakht is a writer and analyst.